# CLIMATE / 2026 - 2100

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Category: Future
Slides: 13
Updated: 2026-05-17T20:55:59.262Z
Tags: catalog, future, climate

## Summary

Pathways and scenarios. What is committed, what is contingent, and what remains a choice — across four canonical futures. Key sections include: CLIMATE / 2026 — 2100; §02 The scenarios; §03 1.5°C — nearly out of reach; §04 2°C — still defensible; §05 3°C — catastrophic, recoverable; §06 4°C+ — civilization-threatening; §07 Sea level — what is committed; §08 Tipping points; §09 Mitigation paths; §10 Adaptation.

## Slide Outline

1. CLIMATE / 2026 — 2100
2. §02 The scenarios
3. §03 1.5°C — nearly out of reach
4. §04 2°C — still defensible
5. §05 3°C — catastrophic, recoverable
6. §06 4°C+ — civilization-threatening
7. §07 Sea level — what is committed
8. §08 Tipping points
9. §09 Mitigation paths
10. §10 Adaptation
11. §11 Geoengineering
12. §12 Where we actually stand
13. §13 References & further viewing

## Slide Transcript

### Slide 1: CLIMATE
/ 2026 — 2100

- SCENARIO FORECAST / 2026 - 2100
- Pathways and scenarios. What is committed, what is contingent,
- and what remains a choice — across four canonical futures.
- SCENARIOS
- HORIZON
- 74 yrs
- RANGE
- +1.4 to +5.7°C
- DECISION WINDOW
- ~2030

### Slide 2: §02The scenarios

- 02 / SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS
- IPCC AR6 frames the future as four canonical SSPs — combinations of emissions,
- development, and policy. The number after the dash is the radiative forcing in W/m² by 2100.
- SSP1 - 1.9
- Sustainability
- +1.4°C
- Aggressive mitigation, net-zero ~2050. Stays under 1.5°C with overshoot.
- SSP2 - 4.5
- Middle Road
- +2.7°C
- Current pledges roughly. Slow decline; temperature plateaus late.
- SSP3 - 7.0
- Regional Rivalry
- +3.6°C
- Fragmentation, slow tech transfer. Emissions still rising mid-century.
- SSP5 - 8.5
- Fossil-Fueled
- +4.4°C
- High-end reference. Increasingly unlikely on policy, possible on feedbacks.

### Slide 3: §031.5°C — nearly out of reach

- 03 / THE PARIS THRESHOLD
- The 1.5°C target was always tight. With ~1.3°C already realized and emissions still
- climbing, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance is approximately
- 200 GtCO₂ — roughly five years at current rates.
- Annual emissions: ~40 GtCO₂. Budget exhausts ~2030.
- Most realistic pathways involve overshoot — peaking above 1.5°C, returning by 2100 via large-scale CDR.
- Overshoot is not symmetric: ice loss, coral, species do not come back.
- Politically: 1.5°C is now an aspirational floor, not a forecast.
- MetricValueStatus
- Warming to date (2024)+1.3°CREAL
- Budget @ 50% (1.5°C)~200 GtCO₂CRITICAL
- Annual emissions~40 GtCO₂/yrFLAT
- Years to budget end~5URGENT
- Required cuts by 2030−43%OFF-TRACK
- Net-zero deadline2050UNCERTAIN

### Slide 4: §042°C — still defensible

- 04 / THE DEFENSIBLE TARGET
- Holding warming to 2°C requires emissions to peak before 2030
- and decline ~25% by then, reaching net-zero around 2070. It is harder than it looks
- and easier than 1.5°C — a meaningful difference.
- Carbon budget at 67% probability: ~900 GtCO₂. About 22 years at current rates.
- Coral reefs largely lost (~99%) but Arctic summer ice may recur in some years.
- Sea-level rise commitment: ~0.4–0.6m by 2100, multi-meter over centuries.
- Tipping-point risk rises sharply between 1.5°C and 2°C — the difference is non-linear.
- Budget Remaining
- 900 Gt
- CO₂ at 67% probability of staying under 2°C.
- Required Decline
- −4%/yr
- From 2030 onward. WWII-scale industrial mobilization.
- Heatwave Frequency
- ×14
- Extreme heat events vs. preindustrial baseline.
- Species at Risk
- ~18%
- Of insects lose >50% of climatic range at 2°C.

### Slide 5: §053°C — catastrophic, recoverable

- 05 / CURRENT TRAJECTORY
- Existing policies, if fully implemented, point to roughly 2.6–3.1°C
- by 2100. This is where we are heading without further commitment.
- It is not the end of civilization. It is, however, a profoundly different planet.
- Heat-humidity stress makes parts of South Asia and the Gulf seasonally lethal.
- Major staple crop yields decline 10–25%; food prices structurally higher.
- Hundreds of millions exposed to coastal flooding annually.
- Wildfire seasons extend 4–8 weeks across temperate biomes.
- Adaptation possible for wealthy nations; brutal for the rest.
- Best-Estimate Outcome / Current Policies
- +2.7°C
- UNEP Emissions Gap 2024 — central estimate of policies-as-implemented pathway.
- Pledges-Only Outcome
- +2.4 to +2.9°C
- Even if all NDCs are met. Implementation gap is real and substantial.
- Implementation Gap
- ~14 GtCO₂e
- Annual gap between current policies and 2°C-aligned pathway by 2030.

### Slide 6: §064°C+ — civilization-threatening

- 06 / THE TAIL RISK
- Above ~4°C, the question is not adaptation cost — it is whether organized
- global civilization persists in its current form. The honest answer
- is that we don't know, because we have no historical reference and
- the feedback loops are not fully understood.
- Permafrost methane and CO₂ release: estimated 50–250 GtC by 2100 — a budget unto itself.
- Amazon dieback flips a sink to a source; further 50–80 GtC committed.
- Multiple breadbasket failures in same year become statistically common.
- Wet-bulb 35°C events expand into India, Pakistan, the Gulf, the Sahel.
- Migration pressure unprecedented in scale; political systems strain.

### Slide 7: §07Sea level — what is committed

- 07 / OCEAN COMMITMENT
- By 2100: 0.3–1.0m of rise is likely; the upper tail
- extends to ~2m if ice-sheet processes accelerate. The harder truth is what happens
- after — sea-level rise responds to warming over centuries, not decades.
- Thermal expansion + glacier loss: well-constrained, slow, inevitable.
- Greenland ice sheet: ~7m equivalent. Threshold for irreversible loss possibly 1.5–2.5°C.
- West Antarctic ice sheet: ~3.3m equivalent. May already be committed.
- 2300 commitment at 2°C: ~2–6m. At 4°C: ~5–15m.
- Coastal cities are deciding now what to defend, retreat, or sacrifice.

### Slide 8: §08Tipping points

- 08 / NON-LINEAR RISKS
- Above ~1.5–2°C, several Earth-system processes plausibly cross thresholds beyond which
- change becomes self-sustaining. The probabilities are uncertain. The consequences are not.
- [01]
- AMOC slowdown / collapse
- Atlantic overturning circulation. Reorganizes North Atlantic and European climate.
- ~1.4–8°C
- MEDIUM
- [02]
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet
- 3.3m of sea-level commitment. Possibly already past threshold.
- ~1.0–3.0°C
- HIGH
- [03]
- Greenland Ice Sheet
- 7m of sea-level commitment. Multi-century timescale once triggered.
- ~0.8–3.0°C
- HIGH
- [04]
- Amazon dieback
- Self-drying feedback. Forest → savanna. Releases ~50–80 GtC.
- ~2.0–6.0°C
- MEDIUM
- [05]
- Permafrost thaw / methane
- ~1500 GtC stored. Gradual today, potentially abrupt above ~3°C.
- ~1.5–6.0°C
- HIGH
- [06]
- Coral reef die-off
- ~70–90% loss at 1.5°C; near-total at 2°C. Already underway.
- ~1.0–2.0°C
- ACTIVE

### Slide 9: §09Mitigation paths

- 09 / WHAT WORKS
- The decarbonization playbook is unglamorous and well-known. Speed and scale, not invention, is the constraint.
- 01 / Electrify everything
- Heat pumps, EVs, induction
- Roughly 60% of fossil use is for heat and transport. Electrify, then clean the grid. Heat pumps deliver 3–4× efficiency vs. combustion.
- 02 / Decarbonize the grid
- Solar + wind + storage + nuclear
- Solar is now the cheapest electricity in history in most markets. Storage is scaling. Firm low-carbon power (nuclear, geothermal, hydro) closes the gap.
- 03 / Carbon dioxide removal
- Forests, soils, DAC, ocean
- Every IPCC pathway requires CDR. Currently ~2 GtCO₂/yr; needs ~5–10 GtCO₂/yr by 2050. Nature-based first; engineered for residuals.
- 04 / Industry & materials
- Steel, cement, ammonia
- Hard-to-abate. Hydrogen reduction, electric arc, CCS. ~20% of emissions; longest tail.
- 05 / Methane
- Plug leaks, agriculture
- Short-lived but potent. Cutting methane is the single highest-leverage near-term lever — 0.3°C avoided by 2050.
- 06 / Land use
- Stop deforestation
- Deforestation = ~10% of emissions. Cheap to halt; politically hard. Restoration adds CDR.

### Slide 10: §10Adaptation

- 10 / LIVING WITH WHAT IS COMMITTED
- Some warming is locked in. Adaptation is no longer optional and not a substitute for mitigation —
- it is a parallel track, with its own costs and limits.
- DomainLeverStatus
- CitiesCooling, shade, seawalls, drainageSCALING
- AgricultureDrought-tolerant crops, water mgmtPARTIAL
- WaterStorage, desal, demand reductionPARTIAL
- InsuranceRepricing, withdrawal, public backstopSTRESSED
- MigrationInternal displacement, planned relocationUNDER-PLANNED
- HealthHeat-action plans, vector surveillanceEARLY
- Energy gridsHardening, undergrounding, storageACCELERATING
- Coastal retreatManaged withdrawal, buyoutsPOLITICALLY HARD
- Annual adaptation cost (developing world)
- $215–387B
- UNEP 2024 estimate, by 2030. Current finance: ~$28B.
- Climate-driven displacement
- ~32M / yr
- Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2023. Mostly weather-related. Trending upward.
- Insurance withdrawal
- 5+ states
- US states where major insurers have stopped writing new policies in high-risk regions.

### Slide 11: §11Geoengineering

- 11 / UNKNOWN TERRITORY
- Solar Radiation Management would mask warming by reflecting sunlight. It is cheap, fast, and
- terrifying — because it doesn't address CO₂, requires perpetual maintenance, and the
- governance does not exist.
- Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI)
- Sulfate particles in stratosphere
- Mimics volcanic eruptions. Could plausibly reduce global temperatures by ~1°C for ~$10B/yr. Termination shock if stopped. Regional precipitation effects uncertain.
- Marine Cloud Brightening
- Sea-salt aerosol over oceans
- Localized, reversible, smaller-footprint. Targeted use case: protecting reefs (Great Barrier Reef trials underway).
- Cheapness is the danger. Within reach of single states or wealthy individuals.
- It is not a substitute for decarbonization. Ocean acidification continues regardless.
- Termination shock — if SAI stops abruptly, decades of suppressed warming arrive in years.
- Governance is essentially absent. No treaty regime; weak research norms.
- Likely outcome: not whether but when limited deployment occurs — possibly within 10–20 years.
- "An imperfect solution to a problem we caused, deployed by humans we don't trust, governed by institutions we haven't built."

### Slide 12: §12Where we actually stand

- 12 / THE HONEST ASSESSMENT
- Warming continues. 1.5°C is gone or going.
- 2°C is achievable but not on track.
- 3°C is current trajectory.
- The pace, the peak, and the damage remain choices —
- made and unmade every year for the rest of the century.
- Committed
- ~1.5°C / centuries of SLR
- Already in the system. No path back this century.
- Contingent
- +0.5 to +2.5°C
- Depends on policy + investment over the next 20 years.
- Avoidable still
- Tipping points
- The non-linear damages. This is what near-term action protects.

### Slide 13: §13References & further viewing

- 13 / END OF DECK
- Primary sources: IPCC AR6 (WGI, WGII, WGIII), UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024,
- Global Carbon Budget 2024, Climate Action Tracker, NOAA & NASA GISS,
- Armstrong McKay et al. 2022 (tipping points), Kemp et al. 2022 (climate endgame).
- VIDEO / YOUTUBE
- ▶ ipcc ar6 scenarios
- ▶ climate tipping points
- → ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr
- → unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2024
- → climateactiontracker.org
- → globalcarbonproject.org
- → Armstrong McKay 2022 — tipping
- → Kemp 2022 — climate endgame
- END OF TRANSMISSION // CLIMATE / 2026 - 2100 // 13 / 13


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