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Climate Futures

A field manual for thinking about a warming world: what the IPCC scenarios mean, where the tipping points are, what adaptation buys, and what geoengineering...

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A field manual for thinking about a warming world: what the IPCC scenarios mean, where the tipping points are, what adaptation buys, and what geoengineering can and cannot do. Sober, sourced, plural. Key sections include: Climate Futures. What 2050, 2100, and beyond actually look like.; Vital signs · 2026 baseline; RCPs & SSPs, decoded; Where the system gets non-linear; What adaptation actually means; The mitigation portfolio; Negative emissions, honestly; Solar radiation modification; Who to read; What 2050 looks like, by choice.

Key sections

  • 01Climate Futures. What 2050, 2100, and beyond actually look like.
  • 02Vital signs · 2026 baseline
  • 03RCPs & SSPs, decoded
  • 04Where the system gets non-linear
  • 05What adaptation actually means
  • 06The mitigation portfolio
  • 07Negative emissions, honestly
  • 08Solar radiation modification
  • 09Who to read
  • 10What 2050 looks like, by choice
  • 11Recommended source
  • 12Indicators · 2026–2030

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Slide outline
  1. 01Climate Futures. What 2050, 2100, and beyond actually look like.
  2. 02Vital signs · 2026 baseline
  3. 03RCPs & SSPs, decoded
  4. 04Where the system gets non-linear
  5. 05What adaptation actually means
  6. 06The mitigation portfolio
  7. 07Negative emissions, honestly
  8. 08Solar radiation modification
  9. 09Who to read
  10. 10What 2050 looks like, by choice
  11. 11Recommended source
  12. 12Indicators · 2026–2030
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Presentation Transcript

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Slide 01

Climate Futures. What 2050, 2100, and beyond actually look like.

  • Volume 6 · Paper 04 of 10
  • A field manual for thinking about a warming world: what the IPCC scenarios mean, where the tipping points are, what adaptation buys, and what geoengineering can and cannot do. Sober, sourced, plural.
Slide 02

Vital signs · 2026 baseline

  • §1 · Where we are
  • Atmospheric CO₂
  • ~424 ppm
  • Up from 280 ppm pre-industrial
  • Anthropogenic warming
  • ~1.45 °C
  • vs 1850–1900 baseline
  • Annual emissions
  • ~37 GtCO₂
  • Plateauing 2023–25; not falling
  • Renewables share (electricity)
  • ~30 %
  • Solar & wind doubling every 4–5 yr
  • 2024 was the first calendar year above 1.5 °C. The Paris Agreement target is on multi-decadal averages, so we have not technically blown the threshold — yet. We will, on current trajectories, before 2030.
Slide 03

RCPs & SSPs, decoded

  • §2 · Figure 1 · IPCC scenarios
  • The IPCC's AR6 (2021–22) uses two coupled axes: RCPs describe atmospheric forcing in W/m² (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 7.0, 8.5); SSPs describe socioeconomic pathways (SSP1 sustainability, SSP2 middle, SSP3 fragmented, SSP4 inequality, SSP5 fossil-fuel growth). The five headline AR6 scenarios are SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5.
  • After IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM Fig 4 · 2100 medians of multi-model ensemble.
Slide 04

Where the system gets non-linear

  • §3 · Tipping points
  • Armstrong McKay et al. (Science, 2022) identified 16 climate tipping elements. Five are at risk of triggering at current 1.4 °C warming; nine more become probable by 2 °C.
  • ElementThreshold (°C)TimescaleNote
  • Greenland Ice Sheet0.8–3.0~10,000 yr~7 m sea-level commitment
  • West Antarctic Ice Sheet1.0–3.0~2,000 yr~3 m commitment; possibly already triggered
  • Boreal permafrost (abrupt)1.0–2.3~50 yrMethane & CO₂ release
  • Labrador Sea convection1.1–3.8~10 yrNW European cooling effect
  • Amazon rainforest dieback2.0–6.0~100 yrTropical biome shift
  • AMOC collapse1.4–8.0~50 yrDisputed; recent papers suggest mid-century plausible
  • East Antarctic subglacial basins3.0+millennialLargest reservoir, slowest
Slide 05

What adaptation actually means

  • §4 · Adaptation
  • Adaptation is the unsexy half of climate work. It does not stop warming; it limits damage from the warming we get. Cooling centers, mangrove restoration, stilted housing, drought-resistant crops, sponge cities, parametric crop insurance, water-rights reform.
  • Five categories that matter most
  • Heat: urban tree canopy, cool roofs, retrofitted ventilation. Heat killed ~61,000 in Europe in summer 2022.
  • Coastal: managed retreat, living shorelines, pumped drainage (Jakarta, Lagos, Miami).
  • Agriculture: drought-tolerant cultivars, irrigation efficiency, shifting growing zones poleward.
  • Water: aquifer recharge, desalination, leak reduction (75% of Mexico City water is leaked).
  • Health: vector surveillance, climate-proofing supply chains for medicine.
  • Photo · coastal flooding remains the most expensive single adaptation problem.
Slide 06

The mitigation portfolio

  • §5 · Mitigation
  • Project Drawdown's ranked list of solutions (ed. Paul Hawken, 2017, updated 2020) remains the most practical synthesis. Top ten by cumulative GtCO₂e averted to 2050, Plausible Scenario:
  • #SolutionGtCO₂e (cum.)Sector
  • 1Reduced food waste~88Food
  • 2Health & education (esp. of girls)~85Cross-cutting
  • 3Plant-rich diets~65Food
  • 4Refrigerant management~57Industry
  • 5Tropical forest restoration~54Land
  • 6Onshore wind~47Electricity
  • 7Utility-scale solar~43Electricity
  • 8Improved clean cookstoves~31Buildings
  • 9Distributed solar~28Electricity
  • 10Silvopasture~26Land
  • 2024 cost-curve update: solar & wind have outperformed Drawdown's projections; food-waste programs have underperformed.
Slide 07

Negative emissions, honestly

  • §6 · Carbon removal
  • Reforestation · BECCS
  • 100s GtCO₂
  • Land-competing; uncertain permanence
  • DAC · 2024 capacity
  • ~10 ktCO₂/yr
  • Climeworks Mammoth (Iceland), 36 ktCO₂ design
  • Cost · DAC · 2024
  • $600–1000 / t
  • Target: $100/t. Required by IPCC 1.5 °C pathways
  • Almost every IPCC 1.5 °C pathway assumes large-scale negative emissions in the second half of the century. Whether such capacity will exist depends on cost curves we have not yet demonstrated. scenario
Slide 08

Solar radiation modification

  • §7 · Geoengineering
  • Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) — injecting sulfate aerosols at ~20 km — could cool the planet within months at low direct cost (~$10B/yr). Its consequences are contested: regional precipitation shifts, ozone effects, and the "termination shock" risk if it stops abruptly.
  • After Keith (2013), MacMartin et al. (2018). Schematic; not to scale.
  • contested The SRM debate is now a serious one — David Keith (Harvard → Chicago), Daniele Visioni, and the SCoPEx affair (cancelled 2021) frame the science. The Degrees Initiative pushes Global South research participation. Critics: ETC Group, Holly Buck, Raymond Pierrehumbert.
Slide 09

Who to read

  • §8 · Voices
  • Hans-Otto PörtnerIPCC WG2 co-chair; impacts & adaptation
  • Friederike OttoWorld Weather Attribution; rapid attribution science
  • Kate MarvelNASA GISS; clear writer on uncertainty
  • Saleemul Huq (1952–2024)Bangladesh adaptation lead; loss-and-damage advocate
  • Johan RockströmPlanetary boundaries; PIK Potsdam
  • Vaclav SmilEnergy materialism; reality-checks the transition
  • Hannah RitchieOur World in Data; data-led optimism
  • Naomi KleinPolitical-economy critique; This Changes Everything
Slide 10

Slide 10

  • §9 · Quote
  • "The climate crisis is also a crisis of culture, and thus of the imagination."
  • — Amitav Ghosh, The Great Derangement, 2016
Slide 11

What 2050 looks like, by choice

  • §10 · Wedge of decisions
  • SSP1-2.6 path
  • +1.8 °C
  • Net-zero ~2070; deep adaptation; lower coastal loss; intact AMOC; food-system stress manageable.
  • SSP2-4.5 path · BAU+
  • +2.7 °C
  • Coastal megacities under chronic stress; tropical agriculture impaired; ~1B people heat-exposed.
  • SSP5-8.5 path · runaway
  • +4.4 °C
  • Multiple tipping cascades plausible; civilization-scale stresses; geoengineering attempted under duress.
  • forecast Current policy puts us between SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. Pledged-NDC implementation ~2.4 °C. Action gap is real and shrinking.
Slide 12

Recommended source

  • §11 · Watch
  • Kurzgesagt · "Could We Stop An Asteroid? · Climate edition"
  • Their climate trilogy (2020–22) is the cleanest visual primer. Pair with PBS Spacetime's geoengineering episode and Dr Hannah Ritchie's talks for Our World in Data.
  • youtube.com/@kurzgesagt →
  • PBS Terra · "Weathered"
  • Long-running explainer series covering AMOC, fire weather, coastal subsidence, urban heat. Source-cited and short.
  • youtube.com/@pbsterra →
Slide 13

Indicators · 2026–2030

  • §12 · What to watch
  • 2025–28 El Niño / La Niña sequence — does the post-2024 record hold?
  • AMOC observation arrays (RAPID, OSNAP) — sign of slowdown?
  • EV / heat-pump global stock-share inflection
  • First DAC plant at 1 MtCO₂/yr scale (Stratos · Texas)
  • Loss & Damage Fund disbursements — first real flows
  • Litigation: Held v. Montana descendant cases; ICJ advisory opinion
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