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CLIMATE / 2026 - 2100

Pathways and scenarios. What is committed, what is contingent, and what remains a choice — across four canonical futures.

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Pathways and scenarios. What is committed, what is contingent, and what remains a choice — across four canonical futures. Key sections include: CLIMATE / 2026 — 2100; §02 The scenarios; §03 1.5°C — nearly out of reach; §04 2°C — still defensible; §05 3°C — catastrophic, recoverable; §06 4°C+ — civilization-threatening; §07 Sea level — what is committed; §08 Tipping points; §09 Mitigation paths; §10 Adaptation.

Key sections

  • 01CLIMATE / 2026 — 2100
  • 02§02 The scenarios
  • 03§03 1.5°C — nearly out of reach
  • 04§04 2°C — still defensible
  • 05§05 3°C — catastrophic, recoverable
  • 06§06 4°C+ — civilization-threatening
  • 07§07 Sea level — what is committed
  • 08§08 Tipping points
  • 09§09 Mitigation paths
  • 10§10 Adaptation
  • 11§11 Geoengineering
  • 12§12 Where we actually stand
  • 13§13 References & further viewing

Topics covered

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Slide outline
  1. 01CLIMATE / 2026 — 2100
  2. 02§02 The scenarios
  3. 03§03 1.5°C — nearly out of reach
  4. 04§04 2°C — still defensible
  5. 05§05 3°C — catastrophic, recoverable
  6. 06§06 4°C+ — civilization-threatening
  7. 07§07 Sea level — what is committed
  8. 08§08 Tipping points
  9. 09§09 Mitigation paths
  10. 10§10 Adaptation
  11. 11§11 Geoengineering
  12. 12§12 Where we actually stand
  13. 13§13 References & further viewing
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Presentation Transcript

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Slide 01

CLIMATE / 2026 — 2100

  • SCENARIO FORECAST / 2026 - 2100
  • Pathways and scenarios. What is committed, what is contingent,
  • and what remains a choice — across four canonical futures.
  • SCENARIOS
  • HORIZON
  • 74 yrs
  • RANGE
  • +1.4 to +5.7°C
  • DECISION WINDOW
  • ~2030
Slide 02

§02The scenarios

  • 02 / SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS
  • IPCC AR6 frames the future as four canonical SSPs — combinations of emissions,
  • development, and policy. The number after the dash is the radiative forcing in W/m² by 2100.
  • SSP1 - 1.9
  • Sustainability
  • +1.4°C
  • Aggressive mitigation, net-zero ~2050. Stays under 1.5°C with overshoot.
  • SSP2 - 4.5
  • Middle Road
  • +2.7°C
  • Current pledges roughly. Slow decline; temperature plateaus late.
  • SSP3 - 7.0
  • Regional Rivalry
  • +3.6°C
  • Fragmentation, slow tech transfer. Emissions still rising mid-century.
  • SSP5 - 8.5
  • Fossil-Fueled
  • +4.4°C
  • High-end reference. Increasingly unlikely on policy, possible on feedbacks.
Slide 03

§031.5°C — nearly out of reach

  • 03 / THE PARIS THRESHOLD
  • The 1.5°C target was always tight. With ~1.3°C already realized and emissions still
  • climbing, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance is approximately
  • 200 GtCO₂ — roughly five years at current rates.
  • Annual emissions: ~40 GtCO₂. Budget exhausts ~2030.
  • Most realistic pathways involve overshoot — peaking above 1.5°C, returning by 2100 via large-scale CDR.
  • Overshoot is not symmetric: ice loss, coral, species do not come back.
  • Politically: 1.5°C is now an aspirational floor, not a forecast.
  • MetricValueStatus
  • Warming to date (2024)+1.3°CREAL
  • Budget @ 50% (1.5°C)~200 GtCO₂CRITICAL
  • Annual emissions~40 GtCO₂/yrFLAT
  • Years to budget end~5URGENT
  • Required cuts by 2030−43%OFF-TRACK
  • Net-zero deadline2050UNCERTAIN
Slide 04

§042°C — still defensible

  • 04 / THE DEFENSIBLE TARGET
  • Holding warming to 2°C requires emissions to peak before 2030
  • and decline ~25% by then, reaching net-zero around 2070. It is harder than it looks
  • and easier than 1.5°C — a meaningful difference.
  • Carbon budget at 67% probability: ~900 GtCO₂. About 22 years at current rates.
  • Coral reefs largely lost (~99%) but Arctic summer ice may recur in some years.
  • Sea-level rise commitment: ~0.4–0.6m by 2100, multi-meter over centuries.
  • Tipping-point risk rises sharply between 1.5°C and 2°C — the difference is non-linear.
  • Budget Remaining
  • 900 Gt
  • CO₂ at 67% probability of staying under 2°C.
  • Required Decline
  • −4%/yr
  • From 2030 onward. WWII-scale industrial mobilization.
  • Heatwave Frequency
  • ×14
  • Extreme heat events vs. preindustrial baseline.
  • Species at Risk
  • ~18%
  • Of insects lose >50% of climatic range at 2°C.
Slide 05

§053°C — catastrophic, recoverable

  • 05 / CURRENT TRAJECTORY
  • Existing policies, if fully implemented, point to roughly 2.6–3.1°C
  • by 2100. This is where we are heading without further commitment.
  • It is not the end of civilization. It is, however, a profoundly different planet.
  • Heat-humidity stress makes parts of South Asia and the Gulf seasonally lethal.
  • Major staple crop yields decline 10–25%; food prices structurally higher.
  • Hundreds of millions exposed to coastal flooding annually.
  • Wildfire seasons extend 4–8 weeks across temperate biomes.
  • Adaptation possible for wealthy nations; brutal for the rest.
  • Best-Estimate Outcome / Current Policies
  • +2.7°C
  • UNEP Emissions Gap 2024 — central estimate of policies-as-implemented pathway.
  • Pledges-Only Outcome
  • +2.4 to +2.9°C
  • Even if all NDCs are met. Implementation gap is real and substantial.
  • Implementation Gap
  • ~14 GtCO₂e
  • Annual gap between current policies and 2°C-aligned pathway by 2030.
Slide 06

§064°C+ — civilization-threatening

  • 06 / THE TAIL RISK
  • Above ~4°C, the question is not adaptation cost — it is whether organized
  • global civilization persists in its current form. The honest answer
  • is that we don't know, because we have no historical reference and
  • the feedback loops are not fully understood.
  • Permafrost methane and CO₂ release: estimated 50–250 GtC by 2100 — a budget unto itself.
  • Amazon dieback flips a sink to a source; further 50–80 GtC committed.
  • Multiple breadbasket failures in same year become statistically common.
  • Wet-bulb 35°C events expand into India, Pakistan, the Gulf, the Sahel.
  • Migration pressure unprecedented in scale; political systems strain.
Slide 07

§07Sea level — what is committed

  • 07 / OCEAN COMMITMENT
  • By 2100: 0.3–1.0m of rise is likely; the upper tail
  • extends to ~2m if ice-sheet processes accelerate. The harder truth is what happens
  • after — sea-level rise responds to warming over centuries, not decades.
  • Thermal expansion + glacier loss: well-constrained, slow, inevitable.
  • Greenland ice sheet: ~7m equivalent. Threshold for irreversible loss possibly 1.5–2.5°C.
  • West Antarctic ice sheet: ~3.3m equivalent. May already be committed.
  • 2300 commitment at 2°C: ~2–6m. At 4°C: ~5–15m.
  • Coastal cities are deciding now what to defend, retreat, or sacrifice.
Slide 08

§08Tipping points

  • 08 / NON-LINEAR RISKS
  • Above ~1.5–2°C, several Earth-system processes plausibly cross thresholds beyond which
  • change becomes self-sustaining. The probabilities are uncertain. The consequences are not.
  • [01]
  • AMOC slowdown / collapse
  • Atlantic overturning circulation. Reorganizes North Atlantic and European climate.
  • ~1.4–8°C
  • MEDIUM
  • [02]
  • West Antarctic Ice Sheet
  • 3.3m of sea-level commitment. Possibly already past threshold.
  • ~1.0–3.0°C
  • HIGH
  • [03]
  • Greenland Ice Sheet
  • 7m of sea-level commitment. Multi-century timescale once triggered.
  • ~0.8–3.0°C
  • HIGH
  • [04]
  • Amazon dieback
  • Self-drying feedback. Forest → savanna. Releases ~50–80 GtC.
  • ~2.0–6.0°C
  • MEDIUM
  • [05]
  • Permafrost thaw / methane
  • ~1500 GtC stored. Gradual today, potentially abrupt above ~3°C.
  • ~1.5–6.0°C
  • HIGH
  • [06]
  • Coral reef die-off
  • ~70–90% loss at 1.5°C; near-total at 2°C. Already underway.
  • ~1.0–2.0°C
  • ACTIVE
Slide 09

§09Mitigation paths

  • 09 / WHAT WORKS
  • The decarbonization playbook is unglamorous and well-known. Speed and scale, not invention, is the constraint.
  • 01 / Electrify everything
  • Heat pumps, EVs, induction
  • Roughly 60% of fossil use is for heat and transport. Electrify, then clean the grid. Heat pumps deliver 3–4× efficiency vs. combustion.
  • 02 / Decarbonize the grid
  • Solar + wind + storage + nuclear
  • Solar is now the cheapest electricity in history in most markets. Storage is scaling. Firm low-carbon power (nuclear, geothermal, hydro) closes the gap.
  • 03 / Carbon dioxide removal
  • Forests, soils, DAC, ocean
  • Every IPCC pathway requires CDR. Currently ~2 GtCO₂/yr; needs ~5–10 GtCO₂/yr by 2050. Nature-based first; engineered for residuals.
  • 04 / Industry & materials
  • Steel, cement, ammonia
  • Hard-to-abate. Hydrogen reduction, electric arc, CCS. ~20% of emissions; longest tail.
  • 05 / Methane
  • Plug leaks, agriculture
  • Short-lived but potent. Cutting methane is the single highest-leverage near-term lever — 0.3°C avoided by 2050.
  • 06 / Land use
  • Stop deforestation
  • Deforestation = ~10% of emissions. Cheap to halt; politically hard. Restoration adds CDR.
Slide 10

§10Adaptation

  • 10 / LIVING WITH WHAT IS COMMITTED
  • Some warming is locked in. Adaptation is no longer optional and not a substitute for mitigation —
  • it is a parallel track, with its own costs and limits.
  • DomainLeverStatus
  • CitiesCooling, shade, seawalls, drainageSCALING
  • AgricultureDrought-tolerant crops, water mgmtPARTIAL
  • WaterStorage, desal, demand reductionPARTIAL
  • InsuranceRepricing, withdrawal, public backstopSTRESSED
  • MigrationInternal displacement, planned relocationUNDER-PLANNED
  • HealthHeat-action plans, vector surveillanceEARLY
  • Energy gridsHardening, undergrounding, storageACCELERATING
  • Coastal retreatManaged withdrawal, buyoutsPOLITICALLY HARD
  • Annual adaptation cost (developing world)
  • $215–387B
  • UNEP 2024 estimate, by 2030. Current finance: ~$28B.
  • Climate-driven displacement
  • ~32M / yr
  • Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2023. Mostly weather-related. Trending upward.
  • Insurance withdrawal
  • 5+ states
  • US states where major insurers have stopped writing new policies in high-risk regions.
Slide 11

§11Geoengineering

  • 11 / UNKNOWN TERRITORY
  • Solar Radiation Management would mask warming by reflecting sunlight. It is cheap, fast, and
  • terrifying — because it doesn't address CO₂, requires perpetual maintenance, and the
  • governance does not exist.
  • Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI)
  • Sulfate particles in stratosphere
  • Mimics volcanic eruptions. Could plausibly reduce global temperatures by ~1°C for ~$10B/yr. Termination shock if stopped. Regional precipitation effects uncertain.
  • Marine Cloud Brightening
  • Sea-salt aerosol over oceans
  • Localized, reversible, smaller-footprint. Targeted use case: protecting reefs (Great Barrier Reef trials underway).
  • Cheapness is the danger. Within reach of single states or wealthy individuals.
  • It is not a substitute for decarbonization. Ocean acidification continues regardless.
  • Termination shock — if SAI stops abruptly, decades of suppressed warming arrive in years.
  • Governance is essentially absent. No treaty regime; weak research norms.
  • Likely outcome: not whether but when limited deployment occurs — possibly within 10–20 years.
  • "An imperfect solution to a problem we caused, deployed by humans we don't trust, governed by institutions we haven't built."
Slide 12

§12Where we actually stand

  • 12 / THE HONEST ASSESSMENT
  • Warming continues. 1.5°C is gone or going.
  • 2°C is achievable but not on track.
  • 3°C is current trajectory.
  • The pace, the peak, and the damage remain choices —
  • made and unmade every year for the rest of the century.
  • Committed
  • ~1.5°C / centuries of SLR
  • Already in the system. No path back this century.
  • Contingent
  • +0.5 to +2.5°C
  • Depends on policy + investment over the next 20 years.
  • Avoidable still
  • Tipping points
  • The non-linear damages. This is what near-term action protects.
Slide 13

§13References & further viewing

  • 13 / END OF DECK
  • Primary sources: IPCC AR6 (WGI, WGII, WGIII), UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024,
  • Global Carbon Budget 2024, Climate Action Tracker, NOAA & NASA GISS,
  • Armstrong McKay et al. 2022 (tipping points), Kemp et al. 2022 (climate endgame).
  • VIDEO / YOUTUBE
  • ▶ ipcc ar6 scenarios
  • ▶ climate tipping points
  • → ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr
  • → unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2024
  • → climateactiontracker.org
  • → globalcarbonproject.org
  • → Armstrong McKay 2022 — tipping
  • → Kemp 2022 — climate endgame
  • END OF TRANSMISSION // CLIMATE / 2026 - 2100 // 13 / 13
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