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Energy Future

A guide to the technologies that will run the next century — solar, fusion, storage, fission, hydrogen, geothermal — and the messy real-world transitions in...

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A guide to the technologies that will run the next century — solar, fusion, storage, fission, hydrogen, geothermal — and the messy real-world transitions in between. Key sections include: The energy question.; Where the energy comes from; The story is solar; The 30-years-away technology, perhaps not; How a tokamak confines plasma; Batteries, and beyond batteries; Fission's second chance; The molecule with a marketing problem; The dark horse; Who to read.

Key sections

  • 01The energy question.
  • 02Where the energy comes from
  • 03The story is solar
  • 04The 30-years-away technology, perhaps not
  • 05How a tokamak confines plasma
  • 06Batteries, and beyond batteries
  • 07Fission's second chance
  • 08The molecule with a marketing problem
  • 09The dark horse
  • 10Who to read
  • 11Recommended source
  • 12Three energy futures
  • 13Indicators · 2026–2030

Topics covered

futureenergy

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Slide outline
  1. 01The energy question.
  2. 02Where the energy comes from
  3. 03The story is solar
  4. 04The 30-years-away technology, perhaps not
  5. 05How a tokamak confines plasma
  6. 06Batteries, and beyond batteries
  7. 07Fission's second chance
  8. 08The molecule with a marketing problem
  9. 09The dark horse
  10. 10Who to read
  11. 11Recommended source
  12. 12Three energy futures
  13. 13Indicators · 2026–2030
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Presentation Transcript

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Slide 01

The energy question.

  • Volume 6 · File 07
  • A guide to the technologies that will run the next century — solar, fusion, storage, fission, hydrogen, geothermal — and the messy real-world transitions in between.
Slide 02

Where the energy comes from

  • § Vital signs · 2026
  • Global primary energy
  • ~620 EJ
  • Up ~2%/yr long-term · plateauing in OECD
  • Fossil share
  • ~80 %
  • Down from 86% in 2000 · slow grind
  • Solar+wind share
  • ~15 %
  • Of 2024 global electricity. Doubling every ~4 yr
  • Nuclear share
  • ~9 %
  • Of electricity. Flat to slightly growing
Slide 03

The story is solar

  • §1 · The solar S-curve
  • Solar PV cost has fallen ~90% since 2010. Module prices crossed $0.10/W in 2024. Levelized cost of utility solar is now below $30/MWh in best sites — cheaper than the operating cost of paid-off coal. Kommersant, IEA, Bloomberg NEF, RethinkX all project the trend continues.
  • Why it ate everything else
  • Wright's Law learning rate: ~28% per doubling
  • Modular: deployable from rooftop to gigawatt
  • No moving parts; falling balance-of-system costs
  • Capacity factor now 18–28% with trackers
  • forecast Solar passes coal globally as the largest power source by 2027–28; passes everything else by 2035–40.
  • Photo · utility solar · cheaper than the cheapest fossil power, in most insolation bands.
Slide 04

Slide 4

  • §2 · S-curve · figure
  • After IRENA, Lazard LCOE, BNEF tracker. Schematic.
Slide 05

The 30-years-away technology, perhaps not

  • §3 · Fusion
  • Fusion has been "30 years away" since 1955. The 2020s have changed the picture in two ways: NIF achieved net energy gain (Q>1) on shot N221204 in December 2022; and a wave of well-capitalized private fusion companies (CFS, TAE, Helion, Tokamak Energy, ZAP) target pilot plants in the 2030s.
  • PlayerConceptPilot targetNotes
  • ITERTokamak (D-T, superconducting)First plasma 2034 (delayed)~$25B+ international consortium
  • Commonwealth Fusion (CFS)Tokamak (HTS magnets)SPARC ~2027 · ARC ~2032MIT spinout; HTS magnet bet
  • HelionField-reversed config (D-He3)Polaris 2024–25Direct electrical conversion
  • TAEFRC, p-B11Late 2030sAneutronic ambition
  • Tokamak EnergySpherical tokamakDemo 2030sUK · STEP collaboration
  • ZAP EnergyZ-pinch (sheared flow)Pilot 2030sCompact, cheap if it works
  • scenario First commercial-scale fusion electron added to a grid: optimistically 2032, more plausibly 2035–40. Fusion does not solve the 2030 climate problem.
Slide 06

How a tokamak confines plasma

  • §4 · Tokamak diagram
  • Magnetic confinement of D-T plasma · neutron flux × Li blanket → tritium breeding + heat → steam turbine.
Slide 07

Batteries, and beyond batteries

  • §5 · Storage
  • Li-ion · LFP
  • $~80/kWh
  • 2024 spot · CATL, BYD. 4-hour grid storage now competitive.
  • Sodium-ion
  • $~60–70/kWh
  • Stationary & entry EVs. CATL Naxtra, HiNa, Faradion.
  • Iron-air
  • 100-hr duration
  • Form Energy · ~$20/kWh capex target. Multi-day storage.
  • Vanadium flow
  • decoupled MWh
  • Long cycle life; vanadium price volatility.
  • Pumped hydro
  • ~95% of installed
  • Still the dominant grid storage by GWh worldwide.
  • Thermal
  • molten salt · sand
  • Antora, Rondo, Polar Night. Industrial heat.
Slide 08

Fission's second chance

  • §6 · Nuclear
  • Public opinion on nuclear has reversed in many countries since 2020 — pre-pandemic skepticism gave way to climate-driven pragmatism. France ordered six new EPR2 reactors in 2022; Sweden reversed a phase-out; Japan restarted idled units; the US passed the IRA's nuclear PTC.
  • Three nuclear bets
  • Conventional Gen-III+ — AP1000, EPR, APR1400. Proven, expensive, slow to build in West (Vogtle 3/4 12yr +$30B over budget).
  • Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) — NuScale (cancelled 2023 first project), Holtec, X-energy, Rolls-Royce. Factory-built, target $100/MWh. First operating units 2028–32. scenario
  • Gen-IV — Natrium (TerraPower, Wyoming), Aurora (Oklo), molten-salt (Kairos, Terrestrial Energy). 2030s timelines.
  • Fuel: HALEU bottleneck (high-assay low-enriched uranium). Russia is the dominant supplier; Western capacity ramping but tight through 2030.
Slide 09

The molecule with a marketing problem

  • §7 · Hydrogen
  • Most hydrogen today (~95%) is "gray" — made from natural gas, emits CO₂. The clean alternative, "green" hydrogen from electrolysis, currently costs $4–7/kg vs $1–2 for gray. Bloomberg, IEA, Liebreich agree: hydrogen will play a real role in steel, ammonia, shipping, aviation — and will be a bad fit for cars and home heating.
  • Hydrogen Ladder · Liebreich
  • Tier A: fertilizer ammonia, refining, methanol, hydrogenation
  • Tier B: steel (DRI), high-grade industrial heat
  • Tier C: long-haul shipping (NH3 carrier)
  • Tier D: aviation (synfuel feedstock)
  • Tier G: home heating, light vehicles, peaking power — bad fit
  • forecast Green H2 reaches $2/kg in best sites by 2032; mass deployment in tier A/B follows.
Slide 10

The dark horse

  • §8 · Geothermal
  • Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) take the well-drilling expertise that the shale-oil revolution built and turn it on hot dry rock. Fervo Energy's Cape Station (Utah, 400 MW under construction 2024–28), Eavor's closed-loop concept, and the DOE's Frontier Observatory have moved EGS from concept to early commercial.
  • The promise: 24/7 dispatchable clean baseload, geographically widespread, drilling depths of 4–7 km. The hard part: cost-down to $50/MWh-equivalent, and inducing seismicity safely.
  • scenario 50–100 GW of EGS by 2035 in optimistic deployment scenarios. Could be the second large dispatchable clean source after nuclear.
Slide 11

Who to read

  • §9 · Voices
  • Vaclav SmilEnergy scaling realism; How the World Really Works
  • Saul GriffithRewiring America; electrify everything
  • Hannah RitchieOur World in Data; Not the End of the World
  • Jesse JenkinsPrinceton ZERO Lab; transition modeling
  • Michael LiebreichHydrogen ladder; energy realism
  • Bret KugelmassLast Energy; nuclear advocacy
  • Daniel YerginEnergy historian; The Quest, The New Map
  • Ramez NaamSolar S-curves; technology forecasting
  • "The energy transition is happening. It is also happening too slowly." — a paraphrase of every honest analyst.
Slide 12

Recommended source

  • §10 · Watch
  • Real Engineering · "The Truth About Solar" / "Why ITER Will Take Forever"
  • Brian McManus's deep-dive engineering channel. Pair with Just Have a Think (UK) and Practical Engineering for grid topics.
  • youtube.com/@RealEngineering →
  • Kurzgesagt · "The Pursuit of Wonder · Fusion"
  • 10-minute primer on why fusion is hard, where the milestones are, and what NIF actually accomplished.
  • youtube.com/@kurzgesagt →
Slide 13

Three energy futures

  • §11 · 2050 scenarios
  • A · The cheap-solar world
  • Abundance
  • Solar+wind+storage default. Electrification of everything; H2 for hard-to-abate. Fusion arrives, doesn't displace solar.
  • B · Mixed bag
  • Nuclear + renewables
  • SMR fleet of 200+ units; geothermal scales; gas remains as transition fuel longer than expected.
  • C · Stuck transition
  • Coal endures
  • Permitting, grid, materials bottlenecks limit clean buildout. Climate path closer to SSP3-7.0.
Slide 14

Indicators · 2026–2030

  • §12 · What to watch
  • Solar deployment rate · 600 GW/yr → 1 TW/yr inflection
  • Battery prices crossing $50/kWh
  • SPARC first plasma · 2026–27
  • First operating SMR (US, UK, Canada) · 2028–32
  • Permitting reform in US, EU — grid interconnection queues
  • Critical-mineral supply chains (Li, Ni, Co, rare earths) — recycling & sodium swap
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