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Renewable Energy / The cost-curve revolution

Every doubling of cumulative solar capacity has knocked roughly 20-25% off price. The curve has held for four decades.

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Every doubling of cumulative solar capacity has knocked roughly 20-25% off price. The curve has held for four decades. Key sections include: RENEWABLE ENERGY; Wright's Law, in production.; Bigger blades, steadier output.; 15+ MW machines, in salt water.; The renewable that already won.; The sun and wind don't follow demand.; Li-ion: -90% in fifteen years.; Boring. Underrated. Dominant.; Long-duration storage: still unsolved at scale.; Drilling unlocks geothermal anywhere..

Key sections

  • 01RENEWABLE ENERGY
  • 02Wright's Law, in production.
  • 03Bigger blades, steadier output.
  • 0415+ MW machines, in salt water.
  • 05The renewable that already won.
  • 06The sun and wind don't follow demand.
  • 07Li-ion: -90% in fifteen years.
  • 08Boring. Underrated. Dominant.
  • 09Long-duration storage: still unsolved at scale.
  • 10Drilling unlocks geothermal anywhere.
  • 11The wires are the work.
  • 12The technology is cheap. Deployment is the bottleneck.
  • 13Go deeper.

Topics covered

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Slide outline
  1. 01RENEWABLE ENERGY
  2. 02Wright's Law, in production.
  3. 03Bigger blades, steadier output.
  4. 0415+ MW machines, in salt water.
  5. 05The renewable that already won.
  6. 06The sun and wind don't follow demand.
  7. 07Li-ion: -90% in fifteen years.
  8. 08Boring. Underrated. Dominant.
  9. 09Long-duration storage: still unsolved at scale.
  10. 10Drilling unlocks geothermal anywhere.
  11. 11The wires are the work.
  12. 12The technology is cheap. Deployment is the bottleneck.
  13. 13Go deeper.
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Presentation Transcript

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Slide 01

RENEWABLE ENERGY

  • Energy / Technology / 2026
  • The cost-curve revolution.
  • From $100/W solar to $0.20/W. From 1-MW turbines to 15-MW giants. From "alternative" to cheapest. A 13-slide field guide to the technologies remaking the grid.
  • Solar
  • Wind
  • Storage & Grid
Slide 02

Wright's Law, in production.

  • Solar PV Slide 02
  • Every doubling of cumulative solar capacity has knocked roughly 20-25% off price. The curve has held for four decades.
  • MODULE PRICE / WATT
  • $100/W
  • 1980
  • →
  • $0.20/W
  • 2024
  • A 500× cost reduction. Mass-manufactured silicon wafers, automated stringing, scale, scale, scale.
  • Crystalline silicon dominates — ~95% of new installs.
  • TOPCon & HJT cells push commercial efficiency past 23%.
  • Bifacial + tracker = ~15-20% extra annual yield.
  • SOLAR MODULE COST CURVE (LOG)
  • Module ASP, log scale. Source: ITRPV, BNEF (illustrative).
Slide 03

Bigger blades, steadier output.

  • Wind / Onshore Slide 03
  • Onshore turbines kept growing — longer blades sweep more air, taller towers reach steadier wind. Capacity factors climbed from ~25% to 35-50%.
  • MODERN UTILITY-SCALE TURBINE
  • 35-50%
  • Capacity factor (modern)
  • ~6 MW
  • Avg new onshore unit
  • ~170 m
  • Rotor diameter
  • $30-50
  • $/MWh LCOE band
  • WHY BIGGER WORKS
  • Power scales with rotor swept area — r².
  • Wind speed climbs with altitude (~1/7 power law).
  • Fewer turbines → less wiring, less maintenance.
Slide 04

15+ MW machines, in salt water.

  • Wind / Offshore Slide 04
  • Offshore wind blows harder and steadier. Modern direct-drive turbines now top 15 MW; the UK and China have built most of the world's fleet.
  • 15+MW
  • Per-turbine nameplate. Single rotation can power a UK home for ~2 days.
  • ~50%
  • Capacity factor for North Sea fleets. Higher and steadier than onshore.
  • UK·CN
  • Lead the world. China surged past the UK in installed capacity ~2021; both still building.
  • FOUNDATION TYPES
  • Monopile — up to ~60 m depth. Cheapest, ubiquitous.
  • Jacket — deeper, complex, oil-rig heritage.
  • Floating — the frontier; opens deep waters off Japan, California, Norway.
  • CHALLENGES
  • Specialized installation vessels are scarce.
  • Supply-chain steel + cable bottlenecks.
  • Permitting timelines: 6-10 years per project.
Slide 05

The renewable that already won.

  • Hydro Slide 05
  • Wind and solar grab the headlines. Hydropower is still the largest renewable source globally — ~15% of all electricity, more than wind and solar combined for now.
  • ~15% of global power
  • Quietly does the work: dispatchable, long-lived, and provides the natural pair to pumped storage. Costs vary wildly by geography.
  • REGIONAL LEADERS
  • China
  • Three Gorges — 22.5 GW
  • Brazil
  • Itaipu — 14 GW
  • Norway
  • ~90% of grid is hydro
  • New large dams are rare in OECD — environmental + social costs are real.
Slide 06

The sun and wind don't follow demand.

  • Problem Slide 06
  • Solar peaks at noon. Demand peaks at dinner. Wind blows when it blows. The cheap kWh is the easy part — matching supply to demand is the hard part.
  • SUPPLY VS DEMAND, A SUMMER WEEKDAY (ILLUSTRATIVE)
  • Curtailment — throwing away free electrons when grid can't absorb.
  • Negative pricing — California & Germany see this regularly now.
  • Solution — shift it: store, transmit, or change demand.
Slide 07

Li-ion: -90% in fifteen years.

  • Storage / Batteries Slide 07
  • Lithium-ion battery packs fell from ~$1,200/kWh in 2010 to ~$120/kWh in 2024. EVs paid the R&D bill; the grid is now collecting the dividend.
  • PACK PRICE / kWh
  • $1,200
  • 2010
  • →
  • $120
  • 2024
  • ~90% reduction. Wright's Law for chemistry: every doubling of cumulative production cuts cost ~20%.
  • CHEMISTRIES IN PLAY
  • NMC / NCA — high energy density, premium EVs.
  • LFP — cheaper, safer, longer-cycling. Now >50% of new grid storage.
  • Sodium-ion — commercial in 2024 (CATL, BYD). No lithium, no cobalt.
  • Flow batteries — vanadium, iron. Decouples power × energy. Niche but useful for long-duration.
  • 2-4 h
  • Typical grid Li-ion duration
  • ~85 GW
  • Global BESS, end-2024
Slide 08

Boring. Underrated. Dominant.

  • Storage / Pumped Hydro Slide 08
  • Two reservoirs, one elevation gap, a reversible pump-turbine. ~95% of all installed grid storage today is pumped hydro. Round-trip efficiency 75-85%, lifetime 50+ years.
  • SCHEMATIC
  • ~95%
  • Of grid storage today
  • 75-85%
  • Round-trip efficiency
  • 8-20 h
  • Typical duration
  • 50+ yrs
  • Asset lifetime
  • Constraints: needs two reservoirs at different elevations, multi-billion capex, decade-long permits. Closed-loop designs (no rivers) are unlocking new sites.
Slide 09

Long-duration storage: still unsolved at scale.

  • Frontier Slide 09
  • A 4-hour Li-ion battery can't handle a week of cloudy stillness. Multiple technologies are racing to fill the gap from 10 hours to 100+ hours — none has yet reached gigawatt commercial scale.
  • Iron-Air
  • Form Energy
  • ~100 h duration. Rusts and un-rusts iron pellets. First MW-scale projects 2024-25.
  • Thermal
  • Antora, Rondo
  • Heat carbon or bricks to 1500°C. Discharge as electricity or process heat.
  • Gravity
  • Energy Vault
  • Lift heavy blocks with surplus power; drop them to generate. Modest commercial traction.
  • Hydrogen
  • Electrolysis → H₂
  • Multi-week / seasonal. Round-trip efficiency 30-40%. Best for hard-to-decarbonize industry.
  • The honest take: the LDES market is real but small. For now, overbuilding wind+solar plus a 4-8h battery beats most LDES on cost in most grids. That math is changing as renewable share rises past 70-80%.
Slide 10

Drilling unlocks geothermal anywhere.

  • Geothermal Slide 10
  • Conventional geothermal needs natural hot water near the surface — a few lucky places. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) use shale-fracking techniques to engineer reservoirs deep underground. Suddenly: geothermal almost everywhere.
  • FLAGSHIP PROJECTS
  • Fervo Energy — Cape Station
  • Utah, USA. Targeting 400 MW EGS by 2028. Demonstrated horizontal-well + frac at 200°C+ rock.
  • Eavor — Closed-Loop
  • Sealed pipe-in-rock; no fracking. First commercial plant in Bavaria.
  • Quaise — Millimeter-Wave Drilling
  • Vaporizing rock to reach 10 km / supercritical conditions. Long bet, big payoff.
  • 24/7
  • Capacity factor >90%
  • Always-on
  • Pairs perfectly with solar
  • Borrows the entire shale-oilfield supply chain — rigs, frac fleets, geologists.
  • No fuel, no CO₂, no intermittency. Land footprint tiny vs solar/wind.
  • Risk: induced seismicity, drilling cost, learning rate still uncertain.
Slide 11

The wires are the work.

  • Grid Slide 11
  • Generation is winning. The grid — transmission, distribution, dispatch — is the new bottleneck. Three technologies are quietly transforming it.
  • HVDC
  • Long-distance transmission
  • High-voltage DC moves bulk power 1000+ km with ~3% loss per 1000 km. China's ±1100 kV Changji-Guquan line: 12 GW across 3,300 km.
  • Why it matters: connects sunny deserts to cloudy cities, windy plains to coastal demand.
  • DR & VPP
  • Demand response
  • Smart thermostats, EV chargers, water heaters — aggregated into virtual power plants. Tesla, Octopus, Sunrun running fleets at 100s of MW today.
  • Why it matters: shifts demand to when supply is abundant. Cheapest "kWh" is the one you don't need.
  • DLR
  • Dynamic line rating
  • Existing lines have static ratings set for hot still days. Sensors measuring real wind & temperature can safely push 25-40% more current most hours.
  • Why it matters: capacity uplift without new poles or permits. The fastest fix on the grid.
Slide 12

The technology is cheap. Deployment is the bottleneck.

  • Reality check Slide 12
  • SOLVED OR NEARLY SOLVED
  • Solar & onshore wind — cheapest electrons in history.
  • Li-ion for 4-hour grid balancing.
  • HVDC for long-haul transmission.
  • Pumped hydro where geography allows.
  • STILL HARD
  • Permitting — 5-10 years to build a transmission line in the US.
  • Interconnection queues — 1+ TW of projects waiting.
  • Long-duration storage at scale.
  • Heavy industry, aviation, shipping decarbonization.
  • Critical-mineral & supply-chain concentration.
  • The next decade is execution. The cost-curve revolution is mostly done. Now the question is whether legal, political, and supply-chain systems can deploy what engineering has already delivered.
Slide 13

Go deeper.

  • Slide 13 / Closing
  • A starter set of YouTube searches and the broad idea behind this deck.
  • Solar cost curve & Wright's Law
  • youtube.com/results?...solar+cost+curve+wright+law
  • Lithium battery grid storage
  • youtube.com/results?...lithium+battery+grid+storage
  • THE THESIS
  • Renewables didn't win on virtue. They won on the learning curve. The same curve will compound for batteries, electrolyzers, and EGS over the next decade. The challenge is now political and physical — permits, transmission lines, transformers, and people.
  • Numbers: BNEF, IEA, IRENA, Lazard LCOE, Our World in Data (illustrative).
  • $0.20/W solar
  • 15+ MW turbines
  • $120/kWh batteries
  • Deployment > technology
  • END / 13 OF 13
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