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Globalization — How the world got tangled together

Long before steam, three trade systems wove distant continents together. Each carried not just goods, but ideas, diseases, and — in one case — millions of...

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Long before steam, three trade systems wove distant continents together. Each carried not just goods, but ideas, diseases, and — in one case — millions of human beings. Key sections include: GLOBALIZATION / How the world got tangled together — and why everyone is suddenly trying to untangle it.; The world was always trading. Just slower, and bloodier.; Steam, telegraph, gold — and the world shrank for the first time.; It all came undone. Quickly.; 730 delegates, 44 nations, one New Hampshire hotel.; A trucker from North Carolina invented modern globalization.; From negotiated truce to permanent court.; The single most consequential trade event since WWII.; No country makes anything anymore. Every country makes parts.; The pendulum, suddenly visible..

Key sections

  • 01GLOBALIZATION / How the world got tangled together — and why everyone is suddenly trying to untangle it.
  • 02The world was always trading. Just slower, and bloodier.
  • 03Steam, telegraph, gold — and the world shrank for the first time.
  • 04It all came undone. Quickly.
  • 05730 delegates, 44 nations, one New Hampshire hotel.
  • 06A trucker from North Carolina invented modern globalization.
  • 07From negotiated truce to permanent court.
  • 08The single most consequential trade event since WWII.
  • 09No country makes anything anymore. Every country makes parts.
  • 10The pendulum, suddenly visible.
  • 11Not decoupling. Re-routing.
  • 12"Deglobalization" is mostly a vibe.
  • 13Read more. Watch more. Stay skeptical of confident narratives.

Topics covered

catalogbusinessglobalization

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Slide outline
  1. 01GLOBALIZATION / How the world got tangled together — and why everyone is suddenly trying to untangle it.
  2. 02The world was always trading. Just slower, and bloodier.
  3. 03Steam, telegraph, gold — and the world shrank for the first time.
  4. 04It all came undone. Quickly.
  5. 05730 delegates, 44 nations, one New Hampshire hotel.
  6. 06A trucker from North Carolina invented modern globalization.
  7. 07From negotiated truce to permanent court.
  8. 08The single most consequential trade event since WWII.
  9. 09No country makes anything anymore. Every country makes parts.
  10. 10The pendulum, suddenly visible.
  11. 11Not decoupling. Re-routing.
  12. 12"Deglobalization" is mostly a vibe.
  13. 13Read more. Watch more. Stay skeptical of confident narratives.
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Slide 01

GLOBALIZATION /How the world got tangled together — and why everyone is suddenly trying to untangle it.

  • DECK 06 / GLOBALIZATION / VOL. I
  • EDITION2026.05
  • SLIDES13
  • SECTORTrade & Macro
  • NAVIGATE← → / SPACE
Slide 02

The world was always trading. Just slower, and bloodier.

  • SECTION 01 / PRE-HISTORY
  • SLIDE 02 / 13 · ERA: Pre-1800
  • // 02 — Globalization Before "Globalization"
  • Long before steam, three trade systems wove distant continents together. Each carried not just goods, but ideas, diseases, and — in one case — millions of human beings.
  • CIRCA 130 BCE — 1450 CE
  • The Silk Road
  • Caravans linked Han China to Rome via Central Asia. Silk eastward, silver westward, Buddhism, Islam, gunpowder, and the Black Death all hitchhiked along.
  • 1500 — 1800
  • The Spice Trade
  • Pepper, cloves, nutmeg drew Portuguese, Dutch, and English fleets to the Indian Ocean. Spawned the first true multinationals: VOC (1602) and the EIC (1600).
  • 1500 — 1866
  • The Atlantic Slave Trade
  • The dark engine of early globalization. ~12.5 million Africans forcibly transported to the Americas; sugar, cotton, and capital flowed back to Europe.
  • ~5,000 mi
  • Silk Road span
  • 12.5 M
  • Enslaved Africans transported
  • 300 yrs
  • Dutch / English company rule
Slide 03

Steam, telegraph, gold — and the world shrank for the first time.

  • SECTION 02 / FIRST WAVE
  • SLIDE 03 / 13 · ERA: 1870 – 1914
  • // 03 — The First Globalization
  • Between 1870 and 1914, world trade grew faster than ever before. Three technologies + one monetary regime fused the planet into something an economist of 1860 wouldn't have recognized.
  • The four pillars
  • STEAM Steamships cut Atlantic crossing from 5 weeks to 10 days.
  • TELEGRAPH Transatlantic cable (1866): messages in minutes, not months.
  • RAIL ~1M km of track laid worldwide by 1914.
  • GOLD STD Common monetary anchor: stable cross-border prices.
  • "Inhabitant of London could order, by telephone, sipping his morning tea, the various products of the whole earth."— J. M. KEYNES, 1919
  • YEARWORLD TRADEVS. GDPMIGRATION
  • 1820$7B2%low
  • 1870$56B9%rising
  • 1900$118B14%peak
  • 1913$236B17%~60M
  • Trade-to-GDP ratios in 1913 would not be matched again until ~1970. Cross-border passport requirements barely existed. It was, by some measures, more open than today.
Slide 04

It all came undone. Quickly.

  • SECTION 03 / COLLAPSE
  • SLIDE 04 / 13 · ERA: 1914 – 1945
  • // 04 — The 30 Years' Crisis
  • The first globalization didn't fade — it shattered. Two world wars and a depression destroyed the institutional fabric in three decades. Trade volumes wouldn't recover their 1913 share of GDP for over 50 years.
  • 1914
  • WWI breaks out
  • Naval blockades sever Atlantic trade. Gold standard suspended across Europe.
  • 1918 – 1929
  • An anxious recovery
  • Tariffs creep up. Britain returns to gold (1925) at pre-war parity — disastrously.
  • 1929
  • Wall Street crashes
  • Capital flows reverse. Banks fail across Europe and the U.S.
  • 1930
  • Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
  • U.S. raises duties on 20,000+ goods. 1,028 economists petition against it. It passes anyway.
  • 1933
  • Trade collapses
  • World trade has fallen by ~66% from 1929 peak. Beggar-thy-neighbor everywhere.
  • The damage in numbers
  • METRIC19291933
  • World trade vol.10034
  • U.S. avg tariff40%59%
  • U.S. unemployment3.2%24.9%
  • Industrial output10063
  • The lesson policymakers drew: never again. It would shape every institution built after 1944.
Slide 05

730 delegates, 44 nations, one New Hampshire hotel.

  • SECTION 04 / RECONSTRUCTION
  • SLIDE 05 / 13 · ERA: 1944 – 1971
  • // 05 — Bretton Woods
  • In July 1944, with WWII still raging, the Allies met at the Mount Washington Hotel to rebuild the global monetary system. Keynes argued for an international currency. Harry Dexter White (U.S. Treasury) argued for the dollar. The dollar won.
  • CREATED 1944 / OPEN 1947
  • IMF
  • Lender of last resort to nations in balance-of-payments crisis. Polices exchange-rate stability. Today: ~190 members.
  • CREATED 1944 / OPEN 1946
  • World Bank
  • Originally to rebuild Europe (later eclipsed by Marshall Plan). Pivoted toward development lending in the Global South.
  • 1947 — SUPERSEDED 1995
  • GATT
  • General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Eight "rounds" of negotiation cut average tariffs from ~22% to ~5% by the 1990s.
  • The dollar at the center
  • Currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar; the dollar pegged to gold at $35/oz. The system gave the U.S. enormous power — and an "exorbitant privilege" critics still complain about today.
  • The cracks (1971)
  • Vietnam-era spending + inflation drained U.S. gold reserves. Aug 15, 1971: Nixon "closes the gold window." The fixed-rate system dies. Floating exchange rates begin.
Slide 06

A trucker from North Carolina invented modern globalization.

  • SECTION 05 / THE BOX
  • SLIDE 06 / 13 · ERA: 1956+
  • // 06 — Containerization
  • April 26, 1956: Malcom McLean's converted tanker Ideal X sailed from Newark to Houston carrying 58 metal boxes. It looked unremarkable. It rewrote global commerce.
  • "It was the box that did it."— Marc Levinson, The Box (2006)
  • METRICBEFOREAFTER
  • Loading cost / ton$5.86$0.16
  • Loading rate1.7 t/hr30 t/hr
  • Port turnaround3 weeks24 hrs
  • Pilferagehigh~zero
  • Shipping cost100~10
  • ~90%
  • drop in shipping cost
  • ~250M
  • TEU moved annually today
  • The container made it economical to manufacture anywhere for sale everywhere. The factory could leave town.
Slide 07

From negotiated truce to permanent court.

  • SECTION 06 / RULES
  • SLIDE 07 / 13 · ERA: 1995+
  • // 07 — The WTO
  • On January 1, 1995, GATT became the World Trade Organization. The difference: GATT was an agreement; the WTO is an institution — with a binding dispute-resolution system, a permanent secretariat in Geneva, and rules covering services and intellectual property, not just goods.
  • What it covers
  • GOODSSERVICESIP / TRIPSDISPUTE PANELSMFNNATIONAL TREATMENT
  • Members must extend any tariff concession to all other members (Most-Favored Nation). Foreign and domestic firms must be treated alike (national treatment).
  • The Doha problem
  • Launched 2001. Stalled by 2008. Never finished. The WTO's rule-writing function has effectively been frozen for ~20 years. Bilateral and regional deals (RCEP, USMCA, CPTPP) filled the gap.
  • YEARMEMBERSAVG TARIFFWORLD TRADE/GDP
  • 19482322%5.5%
  • 198691~10%15%
  • 19951236.4%21%
  • 20081533.2%31%
  • 2024166~3%~28%
  • WTO members account for ~98% of world trade. Yet since 2019, the U.S. has blocked appointments to the Appellate Body, paralyzing top-level dispute resolution.
Slide 08

The single most consequential trade event since WWII.

  • SECTION 07 / GREAT RESHAPING
  • SLIDE 08 / 13 · ERA: 2001+
  • // 08 — China Joins the WTO
  • December 11, 2001: China formally accedes to the WTO after 15 years of negotiation. The optimistic theory: trade would liberalize China's politics. The actual result: it liberalized China's economics, restructured global manufacturing, and lifted ~800 million people out of poverty — while hollowing entire U.S. and European industrial regions.
  • $272B → $3.6T
  • China exports 2001 → 2023
  • ~800M
  • Chinese lifted from poverty
  • ~2M
  • U.S. mfg jobs lost ("China shock")
Slide 09

No country makes anything anymore. Every country makes parts.

  • SECTION 08 / THE PLUMBING
  • SLIDE 09 / 13 · ERA: The Long Boom
  • // 09 — The Global Supply Chain
  • By 2010, ~70% of world trade was in intermediate goods — parts going to factories that make other parts. A single iPhone touches ~43 countries before sale. This is the real, granular form of globalization: not finished goods, but value chains.
  • Just-in-time
  • Toyota's invention (1970s) — keep ~hours of inventory, not weeks. Saves capital, but only works if every link holds.
  • Value-chain trade
  • Trade statistics double-count: a Chinese-assembled iPad has only ~$10 of Chinese value added on a $300+ retail price.
  • Single points of failure
  • TSMC for advanced chips. Suez Canal for E-W trade. Taiwan Strait. One disruption ripples through dozens of industries.
Slide 10

The pendulum, suddenly visible.

  • SECTION 09 / BACKLASH
  • SLIDE 10 / 13 · ERA: 2016+
  • // 10 — The Backlash
  • For two decades, "globalization" was a near-universal policy consensus. Then it wasn't. The shift wasn't gradual — it arrived in a series of shocks, all roughly clustered between 2016 and 2022.
  • JUN 2016
  • Brexit referendum
  • UK votes 51.9% to leave the EU — first major reversal of European integration.
  • NOV 2016
  • Trump elected on tariff platform
  • "Bad trade deals" become a defining U.S. campaign theme.
  • 2018 – 2019
  • U.S.–China trade war
  • Tariffs on ~$370B of Chinese goods. Beijing retaliates. Most tariffs persist under Biden.
  • 2020 – 2022
  • COVID-19 disruption
  • Ports clog. Container rates rise ~10x. PPE, chips, drugs — all in shortage. Empty shelves in rich countries.
  • FEB 2022
  • Russia invades Ukraine
  • Sanctions, energy shock, $300B Russian reserves frozen — finance is now visibly a weapon.
  • 2022
  • U.S. CHIPS & IRA
  • Industrial policy returns to Washington. Subsidies for domestic semiconductors and clean tech.
  • The intellectual case against
  • Distributional: the "China shock" hit specific U.S. towns hard; gains were diffuse, losses concentrated.
  • Strategic: dependence on rivals for chips, batteries, medicine is a national-security risk.
  • Resilience: just-in-time looks great — until the ship runs sideways in the Suez.
  • Political: globalization was sold as Pareto-improving. It wasn't. Voters noticed.
  • "The hyper-globalization of the 1990s and 2000s is over. We are entering a different phase."— Dani Rodrik, 2022
Slide 11

Not decoupling. Re-routing.

  • SECTION 10 / NEW PATTERN
  • SLIDE 11 / 13 · ERA: ~2020+
  • // 11 — De-risking & Friend-shoring
  • The new vocabulary: "de-risking" (Brussels), "friend-shoring" (Yellen, 2022), "China+1" (corporate). The underlying move: keep trading, but with countries you trust, in goods you care about, and never with a single supplier.
  • RE-SHORING
  • Bring it home
  • U.S. semiconductor fabs (Arizona, Texas), EV battery plants in Georgia. Politically popular; capital-intensive; slow.
  • NEAR-SHORING
  • Move it next door
  • Mexico overtakes China as the top U.S. trading partner in 2023. Vietnam captures Chinese low-cost manufacturing.
  • FRIEND-SHORING
  • Move it to allies
  • Production routes via Korea, Japan, EU, India. The "trusted-partner" supply chain. Coined by U.S. Treasury, 2022.
  • SHARE OF U.S. IMPORTS (%)20182023Δ
  • China21.613.9−7.7
  • Mexico13.615.4+1.8
  • Vietnam2.03.7+1.7
  • India2.12.7+0.6
  • EU-2718.718.5−0.2
  • The catch: much "Vietnamese" or "Mexican" output is still using Chinese inputs. The supply chain is being lengthened, not severed.
Slide 12

"Deglobalization" is mostly a vibe.

  • SECTION 11 / HONEST READ
  • SLIDE 12 / 13 · ERA: Now
  • // 12 — The Honest Assessment
  • The data is more interesting than the headlines. World trade as a share of GDP has plateaued — but at near-record levels. What is changing is the composition and the politics, not the volume.
  • INDICATOR20082023STATUS
  • Trade / GDP31%~28%Plateau
  • Container TEU152M~250M+64%
  • Cross-border datalow~150x+++
  • Services trade$3.8T$7.5T+97%
  • FDI flows$1.5T$1.3T−13%
  • What's actually happening
  • Goods globalization — flat. The 1990–2008 surge isn't repeating.
  • Services globalization — accelerating. Software, finance, design are the new container ships.
  • Data globalization — exploding. By volume, the dominant cross-border flow.
  • Bloc-ification — yes. Trade between geopolitical "friends" is growing faster than trade between "rivals."
  • "The end of globalization has been forecast almost as often as its triumph."— The Economist, 2023
  • ~28%
  • trade / world GDP — near peak
  • services trade since 2008
  • ~12%
  • share of trade between rival blocs (rising friction)
Slide 13

Read more. Watch more. Stay skeptical of confident narratives.

  • SECTION 12 / SOURCES
  • SLIDE 13 / 13 · END
  • // 13 — References & Further Watching
  • Globalization is one of the most data-rich, narrative-poor topics in modern economics. The numbers and the stories rarely line up. A starting library:
  • Levinson, M. — The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller (2006). The definitive history of containerization.
  • Rodrik, D. — The Globalization Paradox (2011). The case that hyper-globalization, democracy, and national sovereignty form a "trilemma."
  • James, H. — The End of Globalization (2001). The first globalization's collapse, and the lessons for now.
  • Baldwin, R. — The Great Convergence (2016). Why the digital revolution unbundled production geographically.
  • Autor, Dorn & Hanson — "The China Shock" (2016). The empirical paper that reshaped the trade-policy debate.
  • Frieden, J. — Global Capitalism (2006). One-volume history of the 20th-century economy.
  • WTO — World Trade Statistics
  • UNCTAD — Review of Maritime Transport
  • // YouTube — guided viewing
  • → Container shipping — history & explainers
  • → China's WTO entry — economic impact analyses
  • END OF DECK / GLOBALIZATION / 2026.05 · PRESS ← TO RETURN
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